vaginapagina | Curiosity about herpes & oral sex

Okay, so I know that:

* there's a ~5% chance of passing on herpes (HSV) without an outbreak, because viral load can be high enough to cause shedding without causing an outbreak
* people with one form of HSV orally are somewhat protected against contracting the other form genitally
* herpes can spread within the body - e.g. mouth herpes --> eye herpes or brain herpes, plus you're supposed to be extra-careful about washing your hands during outbreaks (though I'm not 100% clear on the reasoning)

... but! A couple exists. Both have oral herpes (cold sores). Neither contracted oral herpes sexually, so let's say for the sake of argument that they've both got HSV1 orally (because as far as I'm aware that's still most likely).

Does anyone know of any stats on how likely they are to contract HSV1 genitally from each other via oral sex if neither has an outbreak, or by touching their own genitals after touching an active sore?

Disclaimers: I have oral herpes and I know a couple in the situation described above, and suddenly realised I should know the answer - this isn't me deciding that it's fun to play hypothetical games.

Thank you! <3